Executive Summary
Core view: Q1 revenue and PAT both grew about 72%, order inflow reached ₹734.1 crore and FY27 guidance was upgraded to ₹2,600 crore. Export demand, low debt and high returns are compelling; execution capacity, receivables, valuation and prospective dilution are the main constraints.
TD Power designs generators and motors for steam, gas, hydro, wind, rail, marine, geothermal, oil-and-gas and testing applications. Products reach 98 countries, creating a diversified global niche built on engineering qualifications and custom execution.
Q1 FY27 Snapshot
Revenue₹640.05 Cr+72.1% YoY
EBITDA₹121.68 Cr+71.9% YoY
EBITDA margin19.0%vs 18.9% YoY
PAT₹86.29 Cr+72.3% YoY
Q1 inflow was ₹734.1 crore, up 87%, and 93% was export or deemed export. This is order inflow composition, not reported revenue geography.
Business Position
Strengths
- Specialised generator and motor portfolio across 98 countries.
- ₹2,207.3 crore order book at June 2026.
- FY26 ROCE of 34.0% and borrowings of only ₹18 crore.
- Exposure to data centres, turbines, hydro, rail and marine demand.
Constraints
- Rapid growth can strain capacity and suppliers.
- Export and customer concentration remains material.
- Receivables can absorb cash during acceleration.
- Approved ₹75 crore issue creates dilution risk.
Growth Drivers And Capacity Economics
| Driver | Evidence | Investment test |
|---|---|---|
| Data centres | US-linked generator demand | Orders should become repeat programmes without customer concentration rising sharply. |
| Gas turbines | Global OEM programmes | Capacity and supply chain must support higher quarterly throughput. |
| Hydro and rail | Domestic and export rail plus hydro applications | Mix diversification should preserve margins. |
| Expansion funding | ₹75 crore preferential issue/QIP approval | Incremental returns must exceed dilution and capital cost. |
June order book was 69.5% export/deemed export, 17.9% domestic, 7.6% domestic rail, 1.9% export rail, 2.1% Turkey and 1.0% spares/aftermarket. This is the best available exposure proxy, not revenue geography.
Management Guardrails And Credibility
| Operating objective | Status | Evidence required |
|---|---|---|
| FY27 revenue of ₹2,600 crore | Upgraded | Remaining quarters must average roughly ₹653 crore. |
| Sustain ₹700 crore-plus inflow pace | Q1 achieved | Book-to-bill and customer diversity should stay healthy. |
| Protect margins during scale-up | On track | Q1 EBITDA margin held at 19.0%. |
| Expand capacity | Funding approved | Use of proceeds, allotment and incremental returns need disclosure. |
The upgraded guidance is supported by Q1 execution and backlog. The burden of proof is now operational: throughput, vendor readiness and collections must rise without sacrificing margins.
Financial Quality
FY26 revenue₹1,856 Cr+45% YoY
FY26 PAT₹239 Cr+37% YoY
FY26 borrowings₹18 CrMinimal leverage
FY26 CFO₹129 CrBelow PAT
| Quality test | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ROCE | 34.0% | Excellent capital efficiency before expansion. |
| Cash conversion | CFO ₹129 crore versus PAT ₹239 crore | Positive but receivables limited conversion. |
| Leverage | ₹18 crore borrowings | Provides resilience and funding flexibility. |
| Dilution | ₹75 crore issue approved | Capacity funding can create value, but per-share economics may soften. |
Valuation
At ₹804.90 on 11 September 2026, market capitalization was approximately ₹25,150 crore and trailing P/E about 91.5x. The market prices continued high growth well beyond FY27 guidance.
| Scenario | FY28 revenue | PAT margin | Illustrative PAT | Current market-cap / PAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | ₹2,500 Cr | 12.5% | ₹313 Cr | 80x |
| Base | ₹2,850 Cr | 14% | ₹399 Cr | 63x |
| Bull | ₹3,200 Cr | 15% | ₹480 Cr | 52x |
The operational case is strong, but valuation remains demanding across scenarios. Per-share outcomes also depend on final preferential/QIP dilution.
Key Risks
- Execution or supplier bottlenecks during rapid scale-up.
- Receivables and working capital weaken cash conversion.
- Export, currency and customer concentration.
- Capacity funding dilutes existing shareholders.
- Valuation compresses despite operating growth.
Annual Projection
| Period | Revenue | EBITDA margin | PAT | Key condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY27E | ₹2,580-2,670 Cr | 19-20% | ₹352-374 Cr | Upgraded ₹2,600 crore guidance is delivered. |
| FY28E | ₹2,750-3,050 Cr | 20-21% | ₹385-445 Cr | Capacity and export programmes scale. |
| FY29E | ₹3,100-3,500 Cr | 20-22% | ₹455-540 Cr | Data-centre and turbine demand remains durable. |
FY27 is anchored to management guidance; later years are analytical. EPS uses approximately 31.25 crore shares before any subsequently allotted preferential or QIP shares.
Investor Watchlist
- Quarterly inflow, book-to-bill and customer concentration.
- Revenue delivery against ₹2,600 crore guidance.
- EBITDA margin and receivable days.
- Capacity utilization and supplier readiness.
- Final issue size, allotment and dilution.
Sources Used
Prepared on 13 September 2026 from public information. Forecasts are analytical estimates and not investment advice.